US Lobby Firm Claims Washington Already Considering A Nigeria Without Tinubu
A fresh controversy has emerged ahead of Nigeria’s 2027 presidential election following claims by a United States based political lobbying and advisory firm reportedly that officials in Washington were already considering scenarios involving Nigeria without President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
A fresh controversy has emerged ahead of Nigeria’s 2027 presidential election following claims by a United States based political lobbying and advisory firm reportedly that officials in Washington were already considering scenarios involving Nigeria without President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
The fresh claim is coming against the backdrop of increasingly intense political battle in Nigeria and renewed efforts by some opposition linked actors to draw the attention of US officials to issues surrounding the Tinubu administration.
What The US Firm Is Claiming
The firm, Von Batten-Montague York, had been making a series of public statements about Nigerian politics and President Tinubu.
In its latest claims, the firm reportedly said Washington is examining possible political developments in Nigeria ahead of the 2027 election, including a scenario in which Tinubu does not remain president.
However, this is an assertion by the lobbying firm, not evidence that the US government has decided to remove Tinubu or is formally planning for his departure from office.
That distinction is important because the firm is a private political advisory and lobbying organisation, not an official arm of the United States government.
The development comes against the background of a growing international lobbying campaign surrounding Nigeria's 2027 election.
The firm has previously made public claims concerning President Tinubu, including allegations connected to historical US Department of Justice records. The ICIR reported in July that the firm had submitted decades-old DOJ records concerning allegations linked to Tinubu to the Trump administration and members of Congress.
The allegations relate to events dating back several decades and have been politically contested. They should not be presented as proof of criminal conduct.
US Involvement In Nigeria’s Political Debate
American officials and institutions have a longstanding interest in Nigeria because of the country's size, security importance, economy and role in West Africa.
However, there is currently a major difference between Washington monitoring Nigeria's political situation and the US government deciding who should govern Nigeria.
The 2027 election remains a Nigerian electoral process, and the outcome will ultimately depend on Nigerian voters and the constitutional electoral process.
Claim Coming At Sensitive Period
The latest statement also comes amid controversy over President Tinubu's prolonged absence from Nigeria in September.
Tinubu left Nigeria on August 30 for what the Presidency described as a working vacation in Europe, while Vice-President Kashim Shettima travelled to New York to represent Nigeria at the United Nations General Assembly.
The absence generated a constitutional debate, with opposition politicians and some lawyers questioning whether Tinubu had complied with Section 145 of the 1999 Constitution regarding the transfer of presidential authority.
The Presidency maintained that Tinubu remained in contact with officials and continued directing government affairs.
The African Action Congress subsequently filed a suit at the Federal High Court challenging Tinubu's alleged failure to transmit a written declaration to the National Assembly before proceeding on the extended vacation.
Atiku Camp Also Raises Questions
The issue has also featured in statements from the camp of former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar, the ADC presidential candidate.
Atiku's spokesperson, Kenneth Okonkwo, questioned the constitutional handling of Tinubu's absence and also raised questions about the President's repeated absence from the UN General Assembly.
However, the Presidency has defended the decision to have Shettima represent Nigeria at the UN and said the President's absence did not disrupt governance.
What The Claim Does — And Does Not — Mean
The latest claim should therefore be understood carefully.
It does not establish that the US government has decided that Tinubu will leave office, nor does it establish that Washington has selected an alternative Nigerian leader.
Rather, it is a public claim from a private US lobbying firm operating in the increasingly heated political environment surrounding Nigeria's 2027 election.
Whether the US government shares the firm's assessment or has taken any formal position on Nigeria's presidential succession would require confirmation from official US government sources.
For now, the development is likely to fuel further debate over the growing international dimension of Nigeria's 2027 political contest.
With foreign lobbying firms increasingly making public statements about Nigeria's 2027 election, how much attention should Nigerians pay to such claims coming from outside the country?
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