Nigeria’s declining GDP per capita signals shrinking prosperity, IMF warns 

Nigerian Tribune --------- In spite of the country's economic growth, a troubling trend has emerged—Gross Domestic Product, GDP, per capita is steadily declining, highlighting the country’s shrinking prosperity, International Monetary Fund, IMF figures about Nigeria, have revealed.
The Fund raised concerns that the persistent downturn reflected worsening economic conditions, even as Nigeria improves in overall GDP rankings, the Nigerian Tribune reported.
According to the Fund, as the country struggles to recover from post-pandemic challenges, the latest data underscores the urgent need for policymakers to adopt strategies that ensure sustainable and inclusive growth.
GDP per capita, a key measure of living standards, has continued to fall, eroding the purchasing power and economic well-being of Nigerians.
According to the latest figures, Nigeria’s GDP per capita has dropped to $835.49 in 2025, marking its lowest level in recorded history. The decline is largely driven by the depreciation of the naira and rapid population growth, both of which have significantly weakened economic prosperity. Over the past decade, Nigeria’s GDP per capita has plummeted by 74.08 percent, falling from $3,222.7 in 2014 to its current level.
Analysts at Cowry Assets Management Limited have expressed concern that economic growth continues to lag behind population expansion.
“If current trends persist, Nigeria’s economic progress will remain sluggish, exacerbating poverty levels and reducing the quality of life for millions,” they warned.
Nigeria’s GDP per capita remains one of the lowest in Africa. Comparative data for 2025 places South Africa at $6,517.1, Morocco at $4,470.6, Tunisia at $4,396.2, Egypt at $3,160.1, Ghana at $2,189.3, and Kenya at $2,186.6. These figures indicate that Nigeria is among the least economically prosperous nations in Sub-Saharan Africa, falling within the lower GDP per capita bracket of $500 to $2,500.
In a broader global context, Nigeria is also trailing behind other emerging economies. The average GDP per capita across developing nations stood at $17,060 in 2024, with projections showing an increase to $17,901 in 2025, driven by an annual real GDP growth rate of 4.2 percent.
Despite the bleak outlook, the IMF projects a gradual improvement in Nigeria’s GDP per capita, expecting it to rise to $940.2 by 2026, $1,001.3 by 2029, and $1,047.08 by 2030. However, this slow recovery suggests that Nigeria will only cross the $1,000 threshold by 2028, far behind many of its regional and global counterparts.
To reverse this trend, experts emphasise the need for structural economic reforms, improved productivity, and increased investment in key sectors. Without urgent policy changes, Nigeria risks continued economic stagnation, widening inequality, and further declines in living standards for millions of its citizens.