Defections and the Imminent Democracy Meltdown

Political Musing of Thursday October 16 2025

By Ike Abonyi 

" _Some men change their party for the sake of their principles; others their principles for the sake of their party."_ - Winston Churchill.

There can be no better topic to reflect on for Political Musing this week after watching  Tuesday’s political drama in Enugu state. And there can be no better indicator of a worrisome fact than that Nigeria's democracy is heading toward catastrophe. My refreshed memory shows that the destination was obvious to a ditch when we travelled this path before. Those who learn from history try to avoid repeating past mistakes, but not Nigerian politicians. The level of sycophancy in our political landscape today is becoming increasingly concerning. The noise from the wrong track is gaining speed, and it seems that virtually everyone in the political arena is complicit. The red flag is up but nobody is seeing it.

This road is not new to us; we have travelled it before, and it did not lead us to our desired destination. Instead, it brought us more problems. The current picture of our political landscape resembles what we witnessed in the 1990s when General Sani Abacha believed that the only way to secure his transition from military to civilian rule was to coerce everyone into his agenda.

He launched an unprecedented political mobilisation that virtually forced everyone to participate in his project, leveraging the advantages of his office. Even football stars were not exempted, as they led massive rallies in support of the indomitable General. Politicians, without exception, lined up to support Abacha’s proposed metamorphosis from military uniform to civilian attire. The people felt conquered and accepted their fate: "If we can't beat them, let's join them."

Watching politicians wave APC flags inside Lion Building, the heart of Igbo political power base in Enugu, where the likes of Nnamdi Azikiwe, Michael Okpara, Akanu Ibiam, and Odumegwu Ojukwu once operated from, made my heart bleed. It was then that I came to terms with the fact that Nigeria's democracy is speeding toward a precipice.

As a journalist with four decades of experience in political reporting, I believe that the trajectory of this democracy appears bleak. Democracy cannot thrive when the opposition is suppressed and its leaders are forced to sacrifice the people's interests for personal gain.

Yes, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) has been a colossal failure nationally, especially with how it treated its critical base in the South East. However, this does not justify why Governors Douye Diri and Peter Mbah of Bayelsa and Enugu states should align themselves with the APC. How comfortable is a leader who takes his people to where they don't want to go?  Former President Goodluck Jonathan, a Bayelsa son, declaring his intention to contest should have been a compelling reason for his governor to resist any inducement from the APC. Ditto for Mbah who knows the heart of Igbos on the Peter Obi project. The fact that the PDP provided a platform for a Bayelsan to serve as Vice President for three years and President for five years should be a mitigating factor against leaving the party. Governor Diri is, in my view, being unfair to future generations of Bayelsans who will continue to cherish their son’s presidency.

I am also particularly shocked and saddened by the situation in Enugu state. My Governor, Peter Mbah, has been positively portrayed in the media as performing well and did not need to make this unilateral and rash decision. The shift to the APC is driven by the perception that they will sweep away anyone who opposes them. The cowardly and simplistic reasoning has been that if Bola Ahmed Tinubu could impose his will when he was not in power, who could stand against him now that he holds the reins? 

Even more frustrating is the official reason my governor provided for joining the APC: he claims he wants to take the South East to the centre. Which centre? The APC under Bola Ahmed Tinubu, which is busy destroying Igbo property in Lagos and erasing Igbo names in that city? Which centre, the one that perpetuates the marginalisation of Ndigbo in appointments, recruitment, and projects? What is appealing about this nepotistic regime for Enugu state, known for its harmony since 1999 to jump into?

How on earth can Senator Kelvin Chukwu explain it to the soul of his brother that after he got compensatory votes in his respect after he was politically murdered ( by who ? )  he has carried the mandate to the APC after two years.

While the noise is intended to make everyone join the train, I refuse to be convinced that this move is in the best interests of the Igbos. If being at the centre is the only way to gain access to resources, the Yoruba and South West would not have enjoyed ten years of presidency and eight years of vice presidency, and their journey would still be ongoing.

Throughout their political history, the South West never pretended to be at the centre. Even when the rest of the country, including the Igbos, voted for their son, Olusegun Obasanjo, in 1999, the South West stubbornly resisted his attempts to consolidate power within his ranks. In 2003, despite Obasanjo's efforts to rally his people to support him, Bola Ahmed Tinubu remained in opposition, ultimately leading the charge to seize power in 2015 for the North and for himself in 2023. This underscores the fact that gaining access to the centre does not stem from obsequiousness to anybody but from unity, organisation, and focus.

There is no empirical evidence supporting the notion that one must align with the centre to receive one's due. Although I have nothing against Governor Peter Mbah, it would weigh heavily on my conscience to join the bandwagon that promotes this misguided political move. And it would also be uncharitable of me to look away when I have been at the forefront of political commentary in this dispensation.

I carefully followed the stage-managed actions that trailed Tuesday’s bizarre action, with some players begging the Governor to join APC, and didn't find it egalitarian from Enugu politicians who have been dignifying themselves since 1999.

I am always pained when political leaders make decisions that injure the sensibilities of their people, as it can lead to widespread discontent, protests, and even regime change. Such decisions often stem from prioritising personal or party interests over the needs and feelings of the citizens. I am very uneasy with political leaders who, by their mien, see the people as inconsequential.

Such action has its consequences which include loss of public trust. Leaders may face erosion of public trust, making it challenging to implement future policies.

In a democracy, there are historical instances where many political leaders have faced challenges and consequences for going against their people’s dominant view.  

When former UK Prime Minister David Cameron took such a unilateral decision to hold a Brexit referendum, which he later regretted, it led to his resignation and a chain of political turmoil because the people never liked it. Using political position and the gains in it to suppress or frustrate dissent in a democracy hardly ends well.

Maybe Mbah and his team should provide clearer explanations for their irritating decision. Perhaps that can help build trust and understanding.

Further sincere dialogue may be the ultimate from them to  balance their decisions with the needs and sentiments of their people to maintain stability and trust

The decision to go against the tide within a political party is complex and can have significant consequences. It requires careful consideration of the potential outcomes and the motivations behind the decision.

My concern really is that the decision of political leaders going against the prevailing trend or expectations within their political party can indeed be tragic, especially if it leads to more harm to the people's desires.

No one is in doubt that the undisputed desire of Ndigbo today is to have their son, Peter Obi, occupy the Aso Rock Villa in 2027. This desire is not just a fantasy because Obi has, by his 2023 Electoral performance, shown that it's achievable, more so that no region is more deserving of it than the South East. I don't see how Mba’s action helps this project, especially as they are already singing ‘on your mandate we stand in Enugu Government House’, and election riggers are already figuring 25% for Tinubu in Enugu state, something we all know is far-fetched.

 I think the incubators of this idea should know that defying the People's expectations can be politically disastrous, no matter the media propaganda crusading in Alleulia, where they should be saying otherwise.

Going against the people’s dominant view can create internal conflict and division, affecting party unity and effectiveness. Mba and Diri’s decision to dump their party for APC is damaging to their reputation and can lead to loss of political capital, for taking an unpopular stance. There is a strong perception of betrayal,  or a form of political fraud that remains condemnable. Let's wait for history.

A political betrayal has many different forms. It could be an individual or a group elected by voters to represent them in government but decides to use their position for personal gain. Hon Chijioke Edeoga first did it to the Labour Party and Peter Mbah has just done it to the PDP.  Principles are victims in these and they are bad omens for a stable democracy. For Enugu and Bayelsa state politicians feeling betrayed and disillusioned,  I like to leave them with this advice, ‘When your political allies betray you, don’t despair. You’re still alive! So, drink up and celebrate your newly-found freedom of thought’. God help us.