2027: Is the APC Preparing for Election or Rigging?

Political Musing of Thursday January, 29, 2026 

  By Ike Abonyi

“The chance to profit from corruption is why many authoritarian leaders seize and cling to power.” - Tom Malinowski

What is it that motivates state governors to abandon their parties and align with the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC)? Two compelling factors: firstly, these governors have skeletons in their closets that the APC is ready to protect, and secondly, the allure of rigging elections offers an easier path to victory than being accountable to the electorate. A critical evaluation of these factors reveals the real question at hand.

If the APC were genuinely preparing for an election that respects the will of the people, there would be no incentive for any state governor to switch allegiance to such an unpopular platform. Given the track record of the APC since 2015, particularly during the tumultuous tenure of Bola Ahmed Tinubu, it defies common sense for anyone to swim against the current. For President Tinubu, his party, and the defecting governors, democracy appears to operate as a one-way street, contrary to the vision of its founders. Anyone observing Nigeria's current political climate recognises that it is driven by greed, corruption, and bigotry. In between these variables, you find the reason a governor will take the mandate given to him by people to where they(the people ) don't want to be.

It is essential to recognise the challenges faced by political leaders and the impact of their decisions on the communities they serve. The situation in Akwa Ibom, Enugu, Kano, Plateau, Delta, and Bayelsa raises a critical question: how can leaders find a balance between personal ambition and the needs of their constituents? True leadership involves listening to the voices of the people and striving for their welfare, even in the face of temptations that may lead one astray. 

The recent decisions made by some APC defectors highlight a crucial moment for reflection. Politicians need to consider the long-term implications of their actions and the true motivations driving them. As they navigate these choices, it’s valuable to remember the words of Matshona Dhliwayo, a thoughtful philosopher and author: “When the crowd is headed in the wrong direction, walk alone,” and “A right minority is superior to a wrong majority.” These sayings remind us that integrity and the courage to stand for what is right are vital, especially when faced with pressure to conform. Leaders embracing these ideals can pave the way for positive change in their communities.

Leaders who have lost the trust of the people and disregard their will cannot claim to be democrats. Democracy, as conceived by its founders, exists only with respect for the identity and worth of diverse cultures and peoples. An electoral process overseen by a biased and integrity-challenged umpire is fundamentally flawed and incapable of delivering credible outcomes. A democracy lacking a vibrant opposition is doomed to fail. A ruling party that is blind to democratic principles and for a credible electoral agency cannot oversee a free and fair election. Any government that ignores the electoral power of the people is not operating democratically but rather exercising tyranny.

The APC under President Bola Tinubu embodies all these failings. The greedy and selfish recruitment he is doing in the name of expanding his political horizon clearly underscores these ugly facts. This raises a pressing question: What is the APC truly preparing for in 2027—an election or rigging?

In Nigeria, it is common knowledge—understood by citizens on the street — what the Aplans to do in 2027. The ruling party, the opposition, and even the independent analysts alike have varied positions on whether the APC is gearing up for a legitimate election or a premeditated scheme to rig it. Those migrating to the APC from other parties are explicitly signalling their intentions: they seek a platform where results can be pre-determined rather than earned through genuine votes. Their move toward the ruling party is driven by the assurance of victory regardless of electoral legitimacy as they plan to procure judicial legitimacy after manipulating the electoral umpire and the security agencies. The ruling party’s agenda is clear: to seize power at all costs by undermining voters. Even from those with an impartial view, it’s evident that the groundwork for a credible election isn’t being laid. 

However, the APC’s advocates insist they are preparing for a legitimate election driven by a "performance-and-structure" strategy. After all, President Bola Tinubu has garnered endorsements from various party factions for a second term, bolstered by his popularity. The party is relying on its control of approximately 30 out of 36 states to operate a formidable "political machine."

Yet, the negative fallout from its Muslim/Muslim ticket, particularly following President Donald Trump’s vocal defence of Christians in Nigeria, has created significant challenges. Ignoring Christian interests in any political strategy post-Trump would be disastrous. The conversation is intensifying around "rebalancing" the ticket for 2027, with names like Bishop Matthew Kukah, Yakubu Dogara, and retired General Christopher Musa surfacing as potential Vice Presidential candidates to address concerns regarding religious and regional equity. To appease Trump, Tinubu may have to be prepared to make the tough call of dropping his current Vice President, Kashim Shettima. Moreover, the party is actively absorbing high-profile defectors from the PDP, LP, and NNPP, the three main opposing parties from the last election claiming that the expansion signals growing popularity rather than a mere “capture” of the state—an assertion that reality on the ground in terms of governance does not support it.

Contrarily, the opposition views this in a starkly different light. With Peter Obi and his organic Obidient Movement emerging as a formidable force, they contend that the APC is laying the groundwork to rig or “capture” the 2027 election through systemic entrenchment. The most potent evidence to support this claim is the unabashed institutional capture. Critics point to the appointment of partisan figures to INEC and the sluggish pace of electoral law reforms as concrete proof of an orchestrated plan to manipulate the electoral process. The strategic positioning of Tinubu’s loyalists in key election institutions, such as INEC, the heads of the Police and DSS, as well as the judiciary, only intensifies these suspicions. Additionally, the ongoing e-registration of party members is raising significant concerns; many are being coerced into joining the party against their will, with threats directed at civil servants and teachers that their salaries will be withheld if they fail to register. Even more alarming is the sensitive information they are collecting from registrants, such as Voter Identification Numbers (VIN) and National Identification Numbers (NIN), which the public fears will be exploited for nefarious ends.

The opposition is also deeply troubled by the outcomes of off-cycle elections in Edo and Ondo states, believing these were used as trials for the APC’s rigging tactics, such as compromising result collation centres, set to be deployed in 2027. There’s a pervasive narrative among the opposition that the "legal framework" is being deliberately skewed to favour the incumbent.

Political observers are warning that unless the National Assembly enacts a more robust Electoral Act—particularly one that mandates and legally enforces the electronic transmission of results—the suspicion of rigging will persist unabated. Whether the 2027 elections will be deemed credible or merely a “capture” hinges on INEC's autonomy and the final version of the Electoral Act currently under debate in the National Assembly. Ultimately, whether the APC likes it or not, democracy has firmly taken root and demands credible elections to endure. As Rigoberta Menchú Tum aptly puts it, “Man's capacity for justice makes democracy possible, but man's inclination to injustice makes democracy necessary.”

The evidence unmistakably indicates that the APC is not gearing up for a genuine election; instead, they are orchestrating a blatant and corrupt distortion of democracy. Do they even consider the repercussions of their actions? If they did, they wouldn't dare attempt such a scheme. Clearly, they believe they can take the people for granted. No matter the outcome, they presume the public will accept it without question. God help us.