How anti-TINUBU gang-up can Triumph

New Telegraph Newspaper of Thursday back page of April 17, 2025 

By Ike Abonyi.

"The only way to deal with a bully is to stand up to them." - Winston Churchill?

In politics, from all perspectives, it’s an established norm that dethroning an incumbent in an election anywhere in the World is never a ‘moi moi’ case, especially in Africa, where democracy is fledgling and still in its embryonic stage. It’s even more back-breaking when the occupant of the office is himself a grandmaster of intrigues in the game. But that notwithstanding, it’s still not an impossible task, especially as Nigeria was standing on the precedent of 2015 when a sitting President was removed from office through the ballot. It may also be easy and quick to argue that although the same country,  the scenario of 2027 will not be the same as it was in 2015. Why? Conspicuously, the players are different; a TINUBU, the holder of power by 2027, is not a Jonathan of 2015. The dissimilarities between the two characters are copiously captured in their landmark remarks on an election and the accompanying power game. TINUBU says, ‘Power is not served Al carte; you have to grab it and run,’ while Jonathan says, ‘My ambition is not worth the blood of any Nigerian’ You can spot the divergent impact of those remarks in the elections that involve them.

The harrowing effect of TINUBU’s two-year reign offers a huge platform for his sack if all things were to be equal, but the fact remains that in Nigeria’s electoral process, all things are never equal. What it means is that those scheming to dethrone TINUBU must not just be sharp as a tack, savant and visionary to be able to realize their dream but must, in addition, be lion-like in their approach. One of the best routes to follow to dethrone President TINUBU democratically is for those strategizing to come out of their old ways and try and gauge the feelings of the ordinary people, not that of the political elites. Nigeria’s political elites are slaves to money and can do anything against the people when money enters their hands. That is why they have failed woefully in advancing the right course of the people for development in the land. It’s by listening to the views and feelings of the downtrodden that they will also be embracing  JEC- Justice, Equity and Competence.

Any pursuit to remove TINUBU from office not based on JEC is bound to fail. Nigeria has consistently taken JEC for granted in our polity and it is the reason why she continues to stagnate. Any nation whose polity is anchored on injustice, inequality and incompetence is bound to have issues with growth and development.

The leading opposition Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, grew from a struggle for Justice and fairness against undemocratic institutions like the military, but when it got into office it failed woefully to embrace what it fought against. Sixteen years later, it carelessly lost its dream of ruling Nigeria for 60 years. As a result, the almighty PDP is today gasping and relying on machines to get oxygen to remain alive. Why? Because when it saw power, it became arrogant, pompous and insensitive to justice and fairness and wholeheartedly embraced corruption.

In 2023, eight years out of power the PDP had the opportunity to dethrone an unpopular ruling APC but lost it when it failed to embrace justice, equity and fairness. After eight years of power in the North, the PDP didn’t yet find it germane to give power to the South East that had remained its stronghold for 23 years. Instead, it made sure it frustrated and chased away its good products as it prepared to retain power in the North.

As the opposition is trying to regroup ahead of 2027 hoping to see off an underperforming TINUBU, the PDP is still bugged down by the same old way of walking against the tide. When it’s supposed to look southwards, it chose to look North; now, when every arrow is still pointing south for obvious reasons, it’s still ruminating about the North, yet its base keeps dwindling to the control of only five states out of 19 in the region.

The geopolitical North is the undisputed political hub of the country, and therefore, if they are not at the forefront of pushing for justice, equity and competence, our polity will continue to have issues. Because of the weight and influence of the geopolitical North,, it may be safe to say that they are largely responsible for the nation’s political stagnation. The aspiration of the North to utilize their potential to see off TINUBU from Aso Rock in 2027 is bound to fail if they are not resting it on JEC. If the North continues to insist that removing TINUBU is only convenient if power is returning to the region, it may be playing into TINUBU’s comfort zone.

Aside from the poor governance delivery and the divisive and nepotistic policies of his two-year-old regime, TINUBU is not a product of JEC and deserves to be stopped, but certainly, this cannot be achieved based on another anti-JEC predilection.

Today every conversation on the polity in the country is about how to remove President TINUBU. Interestingly also, TINUBU himself has channelled all energies at his disposal on how to resist being removed from office come 2027 to the extent that he has kick-started billboard campaigns two years away and governance has been kept in abeyance. What looks like governance has 2027 interest underneath. Even the curious frequent visits to France are all about 2027 with other things as cover.

What is not in dispute is that virtually every Nigerian outside this government wants TINUBU removed even before 2027, and almost an equal number agrees it's not going to be an easy task. President TINUBU himself is aware of the two permutations, and as a grandmaster in the game being a Jagaban, he is responding to them adequately. For those who want him out, even today, he prepares and lets them know that he is not just a President but an effective one in power who politically knows his authority and is ready, always ready to widen it.

For those who think that it’s an uphill task to remove President TINUBU, he agrees completely with them as he does a few things occasionally to underpin it. For instance, the unilateral unconstitutional declaration of a state of emergency in Rivers state and the subsequent audacity of removing an elected Governor and the state parliament and going further to appoint a military man to replace them was one of the actions of the President to show what he could do and how powerful and brazen he can be.

In political parlance, the common talk is that the opposition must unite if they really want to remove TINUBU from office.

This view is being so strongly canvassed as if the unity of the opposition alone catapults them to Aso Rock, forgetting that the man they are hatching to remove has been in opposition all his political life until 2015 and knows all the trickery. The most successful political gang-up in the county’s history is the ruling  APC in 2014, and it has TINUBU’s imprint as the main architect of the design.

Therefore any move the opposition wants to make now may be derivable from his creative template with the secret code at his disposal.

In this conversation, I risk being accused of scepticism or pessimism, which is a fact that is also derivable from the postulation of those wanting TINUBU removed.

If you are seeking equity with dirty hands, it may be a Herculean task to realise your dream, and that seems to be the fundamental challenge the opposition might face or is facing.

The opposition in their cognitive bias is using the same template they used in 2023 and are expecting to produce different results, which amounts to wishful thinking. The main opposition party, the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, 2023 was undecided about where to zone its Presidential ticket and continued to hide and seek even when it was obvious that another Northerner could not mount the throne after eight years of Muhammadu Buhari. Ahead of 2027, they’re still on the same wavelength.

It’s, therefore, necessary that the Nigerian opposition team get to know from inception the height of the staircase they are about to climb. This will enable them to know ahead of time the amount of energy they need to muster.

Removing an unpopular government where elections are not free and credible requires a multi-faceted approach. Among the top strategies to achieve this include but are not limited to pushing for rigging-proof electoral reforms. Strengthening critical democratic institutions like independent electoral commission and judiciary, free and independent media and vibrant civil society. There is no indication that Nigeria's opposition is making any deliberate efforts to ensure the birthing of any of these enhancing variables.

The successful electoral reforms and democratic transitions can be seen in various countries where civil society organizations have played a crucial role in promoting voter education, mobilization, and electoral reforms. In others, international pressure and observation have helped to ensure more credible and transparent elections.

For the opposition to achieve all these desirables, Unity and Strong Leadership are essential. Collaboration and unity among opposition parties are crucial to securing victory against the ruling APC. Only a united front from the opposition camp can pool resources, expertise, and support to challenge an obstinate incumbent President like TINUBU. In addition, and very critically, the opposition needs a strong, charismatic candidate who can rally support and articulate a compelling vision for the country.

In concluding this conversation, I would like to leave the opposition group in Nigeria with these suiting remarks by a Rwandan  Author of ‘Pearls of Eternity’, Bangambiki Habyarimana, as he exposes what makes the opposition unable to surmount their enemies. “If you aren't destroying your enemies, it's because you have been conquered and assimilated, you do not even have an idea of who your enemies are. You have been brainwashed into believing you are your own enemy, and you are set against yourself. The enemy is laughing at you as you tear yourself to pieces. That is the most effective warfare an enemy can launch on his foes: confounding them.” God help us.